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Expect to be Hit by a Cyclone

Don't be alarmed, but we are well overdue for a direct hit by a cyclone, maybe a Category 4 or 3. Not to mention East Coast Lows, huge hail or catastrophic flooding.

"I'm surprised we have got away with it for so long, its coming" Says Kerry Plowright, CEO of the Early Warning Network Pty Ltd and Chairman of its parent company Aeeris Limited. "In my experience in this business, weather has a habit of catching up on lost time. We are well overdue for catastrophic events that were the norm in the past." Few people have any memory of such events.

And that's the problem, living memory. People assume what they have experienced or have read about in recent history is the norm. It isn't. The south east corner used to be hit by a cyclone almost every five years. Increased seismic activity also means we should be looking east and to the north for possible tsunami threats.

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The Early Warning Network's (EWN) Climate Risk Platform, which maps historic data going back to the 1800's and overlaid with the operations entire alerting history, is flashing red. The Gold Coast is deep in the high-risk zone. "We deal in facts. The severity of what has happened in the past, exceeds that which has been experienced in living memory by almost anyone residing on the coast today. What has happened before will happen again. The frequency of these cyclonic events in our neighborhood has been every five years. We are overdue, the last one was Nancy in 1990. The 1954 Cyclone was a Cat3. Imagine if we got a Cat3 on the Coast this year.

The first Tropical Cyclone Watch in the region since Violet in March 1995 was Oma Feb 2019. These were only a Watch. After a few swings and misses, a hit is an inevitability. If we had a Category 3 roll over the top of us like the one did in 54, a lot us would be under water. God forbid one similar to the Category off Sandy Cape slipped our way. The storm surge would be catastrophic.

The Early Warning Network (EWN) was the first Australian business and arguably the very first globally, to deliver location-based alerting starting in 2006. EWN is Australia's most experienced authority on the monitoring, mapping and reporting of extreme events.

The dashboard and data feeds are all about locational intelligence, frequency and severity. As in the past, we are experiencing a weakened jet stream. This pattern has been reported as far back as 1853 and results in a wobblier path which allows cold air from the south pole further north and warm air to push south. It also means the extremes are close to each other. We all know it's the mixing of cold and hot air that creates weather. The greater the difference, the more extreme the outcome. Will this add to the probability of a Cyclone this year?

Localities within the Gold Coast are crisscrossed with the track maps of extreme events. EWNs platform breaks up the footprint of events into separate components which reflect wind speeds, rainfall, hail size, fire or other metric relevant to the event. This data can then be tested against the resilience of assets, facilities, infrastructure and operations to determine risk. This doesn’t include any ECL events, pure TC's

Contact Kerry Plowright kerry.plowright@ewn.com.au or Mob: 0403 147 197